5.2.18

Bitcoin BTC Make Bottom at Around 7500

Bitcoin (BTC) has decline 100% from the end of November and will bottom out at 7500.

24.1.18

Bitcoin And The Falling Wedge Pattern, Shorterm Bullish Move to 20,000 Again

Bitcoin Chart now forming the Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern
Bitcoin, actually now is in the mania phase but don't worry, the bubble is not burst yet. The change of regulation in South Korea, the same event like China banned ICOs don't have any effect on the Bitcoin price.

Technical: Bitcoin is still in Up trend and the chart is forming the bullish falling wedge, the shorterm target price is $20,000.

Sentiment: Contrary to the crowd strategy is applied. Many people still believe in the big short, the bitcoin buble burst...so the bitcoin is still in uptrend.

22.12.17

[Bitcoin] Buy on Dip Opportunity

Bicoin - Buy on Dip at Fibonacci 61.8% 10,800

Entry Price range: $10,800 Target Price range: $50,000

10.12.17

[Bitcoin] Buy on Dip Opportunity

Bitcoin prices has up nearly 2,000% in the last year and the cryptocurrency is often compared to the Nasdaq Bubble, Tulip Mania...But actually the Bitcoin asset is not like anything has ever seen before.

It is a digital assets, a store of value, and has the potential to become the commodity of the world some day. Therefore, it could be possible that Bitcoin is only in the early stages, and it is possible that Bitcoin is not in a bubble at all.

The best strategy for Bitcoin is Buy on Dip

Bitcoin can be 

  1. A store of value- Bitcoin has become an enormous source of value as well as a store of wealth for people who owning it.
  2. A digital commodity closely resembling a digital version of gold, a speculative trading instrument, a form of currency…
  3. Bitcoin as a World's currency:  Bitcoin has characteristics of strong currency as durability, divisibility, transportability, scarcity, recognition, and it is believed to be impossible to counterfeit, and in time should gain stability as well as consistency. Moreover, it can’t be printed continuously like fiat currencies, is not controlled by a central authority, and has a genuine possibility of becoming the currency of the world one day. 


26.11.17

Market Are Finally Closing In On A Top

The market turned bullish when bearish sentiment reached an extreme, we can see the same perspective on the bullish side of the market when the investor and analyst community speak of “new paradigms” and expectations that the current trend will continue.

23.11.17

Crytpocurrencies, Cyber Assets and Money

Crytpocurrencies are a costly, slow and difficult to scale decentralized payment system.
Cryptocurrencies do not appear to share the functions economists associate with money.
The future of cryptocurrencies may not lie as an alternative to central bank money but as a cyber asset that enables decentralized applications.

21.11.17

The great run for the stock market will probably continue for a while

This bull market is now the second-longest on record. And with danger seemingly lurking around every corner, the urge to exit is becoming nearly overwhelming. But it's too soon to pull the ripcord.

The market is healthy, and so is the economy. Everything seems to be pointing up. So what's the problem? The problem is that things might be a little too good for our own good.

Things that could threaten the bull market.

  1. Failure of congress to make good on Trump's campaign promise of major tax reform.
  2. A policy mistake by the Fed.
  3. China's debt bubble.
  4. A spike in U.S. inflation, caused by the tightening labor market.
  5. A game of nuclear power.
  6. A spike in interest rates.

16.11.17

There is no 1929 Market Crash

Don't sell out of the stock market because of a fear of a repeat of the 1929 crash, dot.com crash or the 2008 recession -- or any other historical event happening again.
Since history is nonlinear, small differences between events can have widely different outcomes, so historical analogies are an uncertain guide to the future and can never prove anything.
Use analogical reasoning to begin an analysis, but always dig deeper into the underlying causes of the outcome of the past event before making an investment decision.


1929 Market Crash

China's Bitcoin Ban

The world is tired of the Eurodollar regime and America's 'exorbitant privilege,' especially China. China's apparent move to create a new monetary regime is only the latest example in a long series of attempts to 'break up' with the Eurodollar and supplant the U.S. But a centralized yuan-based (hybrid offshore-onshore), gold-backed oil contract is probably the last thing anyone wants. By banning Bitcoin and pursuing instead this backwards 'petro-yuan' regime, China has cut off its nose to spite its face.

U.S Current Account Balance



Gold Potential Breakout

The two biggest driver for Gold are inflation expectation and fear. Both could combine in the next month to push gold price higher. Fall in the equity market is Gold' opportunity breakout in the short term.


Gold prices move in the narrowing trading range of the last four weeks as the impasse continues between the bulls and the bears. We’ll focus on two factors that could catalyze a gold breakout.

  1. Uncertainty over the U.S. political and corporate tax outlook, and
  2. Increasing inflation expectations.


14.11.17

Bitcoin Should Be Part of Investor's Portfolio


  1. The blockchain technology is an evolution. It's non-stop, highly redundant and a trust layer on top of the internet.
  2. Blockchain can digital certify almost anything including physical and non-physical assets.
  3. Blockchain is like an internet protocol, blockchain and Bitcoin are a type of trust protocol.
  4. Cryptocurrencies aren't going away or Bitcoin has zero value.

Bitcoin Logscale Chart. Buy On Dip Strategy

5.7.17

[US Oil] Oil Retracement strategy

US Oil Retracement Strategy
Strategy Suggestion:

Short US Oil at 47 with target price 45 or 44

Bearish:

  • Oil remains in a bear market after concerns that rising global supply will offset output cuts from the OPEC
  • Russia to oppose any proposal to cut output further
  • Libya and Nigeria, not from the OPEC, accounted for half of the group’s production boost last month
Bullish:
  • Qatar crisis

[EA] Electronic Arts Fill Gap and Longterm Uptrend

EA fill gap 95-105 and longterm uptrend opportunity
Strategy Suggestion:

Long at price range 95 in the next few day

[VRX] Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Retracement Strategy

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. is a multinational specialty pharmaceutical company based in Laval, Quebec, Canada.


VRX Shortterm Retracement but Uptrend in Longterm

Strategy Suggestion:



Short at 17 price range. Target price: 14.5 price range
Long at 12.5 price range. Target price: 24

29.6.17

3 Rules of Commodity Trading


  1. Commodity markets are not anticipatory assets and pricing in expectations will likely prove self-defeating; in other words, trade prompt fundamentals and don’t confuse deferred balances with reality
  2. Don’t speculatively trade commodities beyond their supply cycle; in other words, don’t wait for deferred fundamentals to catch up to the market as prompt fundamentals will win
  3. Commodity time spreads do not lie, at least through the duration of the supply cycle, and as a result provide a very good read on prompt fundamentals. However, further out beyond the supply cycle, prices and spreads are markets for risk capital and hedgers, and as a result, deferred spreads offer little information on deferred fundamentals.

7.6.17

[ Stock Market Strategy ] Buy in Dip vs Buy and Hold

Buying stocks on dips to earn extra return then switching to cash to wait for another pullback sounds like a good strategy. After all, buying low and selling high is what investors are told they should do.

But investing only on the dips, which involves some market timing, returns far less than simply buying and holding.

Under one simple version of the buy-the-dip strategy, an investor would wait for a correction—a peak-to-trough decline of 10%—before buying. The investor would then hold the stocks for at least 12 months or until the market recovers to the point where the investor bought the stocks, whichever is longer.

This strategy would have put you in cash about 47% of the time, so if our switches were random, we’d expect to earn about half the market return with half the volatility.

But the results were far from the expected. The buy-the-dip strategy would earn a third of return of a buy-and-hold strategy with much higher volatility.


Buy in Dip vs Buy and Hold Profit log scale

The chart above just shows you just how bad of a strategy buying the dip would have been.

What about waiting until there’s a big, outright market crash? A perfect example would have been to be 100% in cash by October 2007 and then wait until March 2009 to get back into stocks at the bottom.

Two possible reasons why the correction-timing strategy fails in the long:

 First, sitting in cash when the historical equity risk premium—excess return above a risk-free rate, such as the yield on a Treasury note—was high and bear markets rare would be costly.

The second reason has to do with market momentum: “The market tended to exhibit momentum more than mean reversion over yearslong horizons,

As strange as it sounds, you would have been better off buying when the market was going up and selling when it was going down, using a trend-following rule.

The strategy of waiting for a crash on average resulted in much worse absolute and risk-adjusted returns than buying and holding.